According to today’s New Canaan Advertiser:
Home sales up 28% year-to-date; growth at points under $2 million
I think that this feels a little optimistic and can be a bit misleading for a couple of reasons
- the comparisons are only made between this year and last year. 2016 was an unusual year with record levels of inventory and a relatively low number of transactions when compared to the previous five years.
- there is no mention in the article of inventory levels. The number of active listings is an important data point. Last year we peaked at a record level 340 houses and by August 1 we were down to 310. The previous year we began August with 291. This year we began August with 281 active listings. That feels pretty good, but its still above average when we look at the last 10 years.
First of all, what are the facts from the Halstead Market Report? Here is the complete report, the complete PDF of the Halstead July Market Report for New Canaan.
House Sales Activity: Through the year’s first seven months New Canaan continues a trend, with closings outpacing that of last year but about average by historical measure. The 151 house closings through July is a 28% increase compared to 2106 but very similar to what we saw over this time frame between 2013-2015 (see chart below)
Similarly, the 25 closings in the month of July is an increase year over year but actually less than the 33 closings New Canaan averaged in this month between 2012 and 2015 (see the July Solds chart below)
Under $1 million continues to be the busiest price point and has seen an 118% increase in closings as compared to last year.
House Pendings: There were 16 houses that went pending in July, a slight increase vs. July 2016 but less than what we’ve typically seen this month. Of the properties that went pending two had a list price over $5 million.
What did I learn from this month’s market report?
- While the 25 sales in July is up versus 18 a year ago, it is lower than each of the previous 4 years (32, 35, 35 and 29)
- While we closed 25 houses in July, we added 32 new listings last month.
- While we closed 151 houses in the first 7 months versus 118, compare it to the previous 3 years (160, 143, and 148) and we see this activity is only average.
- 11% decrease in median sale price does not mean prices fell 11%. It reflects the fact that we had 35 sales under $1 million versus 16 sales a year ago. Likewise, between $1-$2 million we had 74 sales versus 58 and above $2 million there were only 42 sales versus 44 a year ago.
- The 12 towns in lower Fairfield County sold more houses this year (2856) than any of the previous 5 years (2306, 2848, 2540, 2762 and 2678) and it represents a 8% increase over the average of those 5 years (2626).